Armenia and Azerbaijan
These two countries are situated between Russia, Turkey, and Iran on the world map. And there is a massive conflict ongoing between these two countries.
Some experts think that the conflict might escalate into a full-blown war.
So, what's happening between them?
What are the reasons behind the ongoing conflict?
What are the geopolitical games that are being played and what can we learn from this?
Armenia
Armenia is a small country with a population of 3 million. Its flag looks like this and the majority of the people living here are Christian. Around 95% of its people practice the Christian religion But, it is a secular country.
On the other hand, also, Azerbaijan is not a very big country either. It has a population of 10 million.
And it is a Muslim-majority country 99% of the people living in Azerbaijan practice the Muslim religion But just like Armenia, this is a secular country too. The people have the freedom to practice whatever religion they wish to.
I'm mentioning their religions because superficially, it might seem that religion has a big role to play in their conflict. But it is not so.
Historically, these countries used to be a part of the Soviet Union/USSR before the 1990s. But when the Soviet Union split, these countries gained independence. There is a disputed region between these countries named Nagorno-Karabakh.
The fight between these two countries is regarding this disputed region. It will be clearer when you look at the map- The green part is Azerbaijan and the light grey part is Armenia
The light grey areas are Armenia-occupied and the red region is the region of Nagorno Karabakh.
Both these countries claim Nagorno Karabakh to be their region. Some small area of Nagorno Karabakh, near the border of Azerbaijan is under the control of Azerbaijan. But the majority area is under the control of Armenia
If you zoom into the map, you will spot the dotted line, which is the Line of Control (LoC), which demarcates where the control of Armenia and Azerbaijan is.
That is, it was directly controlled by the center. Back then the central government was in Moscow And Moscow controlled this autonomous region directly.
As the Soviet Union started to crumble around the 1990s, it became apparent that this region would be handed over to Azerbaijan by the Soviet Union.
The ethnic Armenians living here did not like that. Due to this reason, in 1988, the Nagorno-Karabakh legislature voted to join Armenia. However, this voting-based demand was not appreciated by either the Azerbaijani government Soviet government, or Moscow. They strongly opposed it.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Armenian separatists seized the territory and brought it under their control.
This is why ever since 1991, the Armenian-controlled part of this region has been ruled by Armenian separatists, who are backed by the Armenian government even though under international law, Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Because as it crumbled, the Soviet Union declared that this part would be controlled by Azerbaijan.
Ever since then, this region has remained in constant conflict. Every few years Armenia and Azerbaijan have been fighting over it.
Skirmishes have been breaking out, ceasefire violations have been happening and thousands of people have been killed.
The most recent example is the fight that is currently ongoing between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Before this, there was a conflict between them in 2016. Peace reigned for a few years after that Just like there have been several skirmishes and ceasefire violations between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
Attempts were made over the years to reach a solution. A Minsk group was also formed headed by France, USA, and Russia. Wherein they attempted to reach a peaceful solution through mediation between the two countries
In May 1994, Russia mediated a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan- which gave Armenia full control of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Even today, the ongoing dispute is regarding this region. The fight is taking place along the LoC. Both countries deny that they started the fight. Armenia says Azerbaijan started it, while Azerbaijan claims the opposite. But Russia plays a very important role here because Russia has close ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Russia has a military base in Armenia and Azerbaijan is one of the most significant buyers of Russian weaponry. Russia sells weapons to Azerbaijan. Armenia doesn't like that Russia, as their strategic allied partner, is selling weapons to their direct enemy historically, whenever a fight broke out between these two countries, Russia has always brokered peace.
But until now, no significant action has been taken by Russia to stop the fight.
Erdogan's Turkey is being seen as a key player in this conflict this time. Turkey has openly stated that Azerbaijan is its long-term ally, Armenia is in the wrong, and if Azerbaijan needs any kind of support, they would provide them with that, even if it is military support.
In response, Armenia’s Foreign Minister has said that the aggression was pre-planned not just by Azerbaijan but by the massive support of Turkey, Azerbaijan wants to occupy that area again.
Here, it could be argued that both Turkey and Azerbaijan are Muslim-majority countries and hence they stand in support of one another. There were reports in the news that even Pakistan is sending some of its soldiers to Azerbaijan, although Pakistan has denied that.
But a bigger reason than religion here is geopolitics. Turkey and Azerbaijan are neighboring countries. Turkey is a large country, just like India and Azerbaijan is a smaller one. So why would Turkey not want to exercise its influence over the neighboring countries?
Turkey is one of Azerbaijan's main oil and gas importers and when things come down to oil and gas, then what country would not try to become allies with such a country?
Along with that, Azerbaijan is one of the main investors in Turkey. Their economic ties are extremely strong.
On the other hand, relations between Turkey and Armenia have been unfriendly because during the time of the Ottoman Empire. In the 20th century, one of the first genocides was conducted against the Armenians by the Ottoman Turk. Which both Turkey and Azerbaijan deny.
To understand the motivation behind this conflict, it is necessary to understand the internal politics of both countries.
Since 2003, he has been winning one election after the other with a vote share of 80% or more which makes it clear that there is no opposition. The opposition is jailed and there is no free media in the country
They too, are jailed. There are more than 160 political prisoners in Azerbaijan.
Whoever raises their voice against their President, goes straight to jail. Recently, Ilkham Aliyev changed the age limit for becoming the President from 35 years to 18 years. A lot of people believe that he did so to pave the way for his son to become the next President in 2025. It's almost like a monarchy- father and then son keep ruling the country one after the other.
There are no independent NGOs or independent media in the country. This is why the rank of this country on the democracy index is 146 out of 167 countries. Which is one of the worst in the world.
On the other hand, Armenia scores much better on the democracy index. Its rank is 86 out of 167 countries. It doesn't rank at the top but it is much better in comparison with Azerbaijan.
What is surprising is that two years ago, conditions in Armenia were as bad as in Azerbaijan's democracy.
But there was a "Velvet Revolution" in 2018.
2.5 lakh people came out on the streets to peacefully protest against their dictator in this revolution. With their opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan. 2.5 lakh might not seem like a huge number but the population of Armenia is only 30 lakhs- so 2.5 out of 30 lakh people came out on the streets to protest
What's surprising is that this was a completely peaceful protest. They were protesting against fraudulent elections and were protesting against their Prime Minister, who is a dictator and this was one of the most successful protests in recent times. Not even one shot was fired during the protest. Nobody lost their life but the entire dictatorship was
overthrown democracy was established and free and fair elections were held in which Nikol Vovayi Pashinyan became the new Prime Minister of the country and is the Prime Minister even today
A media organization Al Jazeera, recently interviewed both the Azerbaijani President and Nikol- the Armenian Prime Minister.
In both countries, there has been massive propaganda against each other for over 20-30 years.
Today, when a new generation is born, the children learn to hate one another at a very young age. According to a poll conducted in 2012, 91% of Azerbaijanis believe that Armenia is Azerbaijan's biggest enemy.
In both countries, the media spreads propaganda against the other country
Negative stereotypes of Armenia have been formulated by the Azerbaijani media, which are shared in mass media outlets.
Things are so that even in Azerbaijani textbooks, Armenians are referred to as "bandits", "aggressors", "treacherous", "and hypocritical".
According to the Azerbaijani historian Yasemin Aklar, history is distorted in school textbooks in such a manner as to incite hatred in the children and cause them to consider themselves ethnically and nationally superior to the Armenians.
The insidious effects of this propaganda are also visible in celebrities and national icons. In 2007, a famous Azerbaijani chess player, Teymur Rajabov, said in an interview- "The enemy is the enemy We hate the Armenians." He had said that openly.
If nationalism reaches that level, it only spreads hate and violence in the world and nothing else. In 1988-90, Azerbaijani cities conducted pogroms against the Armenians, in which more than 3 lakh 50 thousand Armenian people were either killed or had to leave their homes and run away.
This was not one-sided. Historically, around 1918-20, nationalist Armenians have also conducted massacres of Azerbaijani people.
Here's an interesting fact- Azerbaijan's economy is heavily dependent on oil. Oil is one of the only and the main source of money for the Azerbaijani economy. But you may recall, that last year, oil prices crashed and fell into the negatives. This was a huge setback for the oil-supplying countries. Then came the COVID-19 crisis.
The economy of Azerbaijan lay in tatters and the people were enraged. But the Azerbaijani people are so nationalistic that even if their condition is deplorable and they do not have food and water, they are going to blame the neighboring country for it.
They are still going to blame Armenia. In July 2020, protests were staged in Azerbaijan, not to demand for democracy. And not even to save the economy. Their protests were staged to declare war against Armenia. They were pro-military protests that slowly became anti-government as well.
Protesters stormed the Parliament and pressured their dictator to declare war against Armenia. They want to make the disputed region a part of Azerbaijan again. It could be said it was a golden opportunity for the Azerbaijani dictator. The nationalist sentiment is so replete in the people of Azerbaijan. If they are kept distracted against Armenia, they might never raise questions about democracy or the economy. And this is how the seat of dictatorship would remain safe.
Many experts believe that even if a peaceful resolution is reached, it might take decades for the people to accept one another. Maybe this is the reason why great people like Rabindranath Tagore and Albert Einstein learned back in their days about all that nationalism can make people do.
Rabindranath Tagore gave a famous quote- Nationalism is a great menace. and Albert Einstein said that nationalism is only an excuse for aggression.
If exceeded beyond a level, nationalism would only cause fights, conflicts, and violence across the world and nothing else.
What do you think should be the solution for this disputed area-
Should it be handed over to Armenia as it is Armenia-controlled today?
or should it be handed over to Azerbaijan as it belongs to Azerbaijan according to International law?
Or should it remain independent like in the time of the Soviet Union?
Write down your opinion about this situation in the comments below. Thank you
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